Prior to England's victory against Scotland at Wembley earlier this August a newspaper article pointed out that England would fail to make the top seeded sides for the upcoming World Cup if they failed to beat their oldest rivals and win their subsequent four qualifying matches.
This still remains a likely reality. What is of more significant concern is this - if England fail to win at least three of their four final matches they are in serious danger of failing to reach a World Cup for the first time since Graham Taylor's England in 1994.
England will most certainly see off Moldova but the results that follow are likely to see a tight finish in the scramble for qualification. Montenegro are currently in control, two points clear of England at the top of Group H having played one game more. Ukraine can leapfrog England when they meet if results beforehand go as expected whilst Poland are waiting in the wings should anyone slip up.
England will have a tough time navigating their way past a Ukraine side buoyed by home support, determined to claim some revenge for the defeat England inflicted at Euro 2012. Depending on how this result pans out Montenegro could come to Wembley willing to play for a draw. England have struggled in recent years with their possession play and could be easily frustrated by the table toppers if they are required to press and break down this resilient Montenegro side.
But England cannot afford anymore sloppy mistakes or inept attacking displays. They must be clinical in front of goal and tighten up a defence which rarely keeps a clean sheet against tougher opposition nowadays.
The recent friendly against Scotland was littered with ominous signs; signs of where it could all go wrong for England in the coming months. If Kenny Miller was allowed to turn Gary Cahill, set himself up and hammer a low drive to the right of Joe Hart without so much as a challenge you can be sure Robert Lewandowski and Marko Vucinic will do the same if given an invitation.
Man United's draw with Chelsea was hardly a spectacle but if one thing emerged it was that Rio Ferdinand and John Terry are still capable of operating at the top of their game. Phil Jagielka, the most likely candidate to pair up with Cahill, is no John Terry. But whilst alternative options are available Roy Hodgson seems intent on sticking with a partnership which will inevitably leak goals. Michael Dawson is severely underrated and a far better option then Jagielka. His absence from the recently announced squad is perplexing after two excellent clean sheets with Spurs.
Most concerning is Joe Hart's crisis of confidence, which has come at precisely the wrong time. Against Scotland the question marks surfaced once again and he did little to answer his critics against Cardiff on Sunday. Roy Hodgson would do well to sit his keeper down and play him a video of Scott Carson's disastrous mistake against Croatia which signalled the end of Steve McClaren's reign and England's Euro 2012 hopes. Then play Hart the highlights from Man City's Champions League showing against Borussia Dortmund last year to remind the Englishman of his quality and of what is expected from England's No.1.
Higher up the pitch the signs are more encouraging. Wayne Rooney was superb against Chelsea whilst Daniel Sturridge and Danny Welbeck have started the season brightly. Rickie Lambert is a valuable asset coming off the bench too. England have a habit of choosing their starting eleven based on reputation rather than form. Hodgson needs to call it right this time and Sturridge deserves his chance from the outset. England need wins, not draws and so a positive approach is necessary. Playing two dynamic forwards like Sturridge and Welbeck side by side will produce goals. Rooney can take up a similar role to the one given him by Moyes's on Monday night.
The final qualifier against Poland on the 15th of October at Wembley could yet be crucial. England have an unfavourable record against Poland and have lost their nerve a number of times against the backdrop of an edgy Wembley crowd. It's here perhaps where the fearlessness of the Ross Barkley's and Andros Townsend's could go on to make the difference and sheds some light on Hodgson's recent selection choices.
England are in a more precarious position than any fan is willing to admit and Hodgson must rally his side for one final push, otherwise he'll be joining an exclusive list which no England manager wants to be on.
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