Offer Italy a draw in Manaus, and they would almost certainly take it. The Azzurri, their fans, and critics alike, have traditionally maintained the opinion that it is better to draw the opening game of a World Cup, then go for the win and end up losing.
Such cautious thought has its origins in the long, defensively inclined history of Italian football, and means it is highly likely that the Italians will adopt a patient, prying approach when they meet England in Brazil. No doubt, England will come unstuck if they try to match Italy's tactics, for they are technically inferior. Instead they should be aiming to score first, and unsettle Italy from what will be a very specific game plan. To do so, England will need to target the weaknesses in Italy's compact, narrow 4-3-1-2 formation.
Italy's defence relies heavily on Juventus personal. Gianluigi Buffon is still a tough nut to crack, and will want to go out on a high, but in front of him there are frailties. Giorgio Chiellini, Andrea Bazagli, and Leonardo Bonucci are tough in the tackle and read the game well, but none of them are blessed with pace.
When faced with more talented opposition, the trio have struggled - last year Juventus went out at the group stages of the Champions League, in what was an underwhelming campaign. Domestically, the Old Lady romped to the Serie A title with a record points total to boast, but in a league falling well behind the rest of Europe in terms of quality, this was hardly spectacular.
England would do well to follow Liverpool's lead if they are to exploit Italy's lack of pace. Possession play is not England's strength, and while in the long term this needs to be addressed, it does not necessarily work against them in the short. The ball must be zipped around quickly to unsettle the Italians and draw them out of their rigid formation.
England will rely on Steven Gerrard to instigate these quick counter-attacks, and his trademark raking balls must be directed out wide, where Raheem Sterling awaits. The likes of Ignazio Abate are a far cry from solid predecessors such as Paolo Maldini, and from here the Liverpool winger should be able to glide past with ease.
Once in dangerous positions, England must not play to Italy's defensive strengths. Lofted balls into the box will be useless, as the back four are immense in the air. Keeping the ball on the floor, England can undo Italy's towering defence through a series of quickfire crosses across the face of goal. It is here where a marauding Luke Shaw, who can quickly get to the byline, would arguably create more goal scoring opportunities then Leighton Baines would, with his precise aerial balls. Diagonal through balls from deeper positions will also cause trouble to Italy's top heavy defenders, who are slow on the turn.
Paul Scholes was spot on with his recent comments regarding Wayne Rooney's role for England. The team will profit best by deploying Rooney as an out and out striker, who stays central in order to occupy Chiellini, Italy's best defender. This will create space for Daniel Sturridge, whose movement in the box will be too good for Bazagli.
A lack of mobility runs through Italy's entire midfield. Andrea Pirlo will find it tough to maintain his performance for 90 minutes, in what is likely to be sweltering conditions. Riccardo Montolivo plays in a nonchalant fashion, and should Italy find themselves chasing the game, he will probably go missing.
Be it Daniele De Rossi or Thiago Motta, perhaps even both depending on how safe coach Cesare Prandelli wants to play it, neither are the most agile, and look uncomfortable out of position. Getting the ball out wide will reduce the effectiveness of Italy's holding midfielders, who do not like to venture from their central birth, whilst tiring them out in the process.
Both managers will need to use their substitutions wisely, as this is where the game may well be won and lost. Where Roy Hodgson can call on Ross Barkley and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, not only fresh legs, but pacey ones too, Prandelli has only more flair players, who offer little in the way of a plan B.
Napoli's Lorenzo Insigne and Fiorentina's Alberto Aquilani have had fine domestic seasons, and would be perfect replacements should Italy find themselves cruising. But in terms of raw pace, which can make the difference in what many predict will be a tight affair, it is England who have the strength in depth.
Upfront, only Mario Balotelli has notched 10 plus goals for Italy since the 2010 World Cup. Having had an up and down season with Milan, he is not entering the tournament in prime form. Elsewhere, Giuseppe Rossi is struggling to prove his fitness, Antonio Cassano is unpredictable, and new boys Mattia Destro and Ciro Immobile are unproven at international level.
In short, Italy's forward line is not one that Gary Cahill and Phil Jagielka should be afraid of; the former's performances this season have shown that he can mix it with the very best. If there is one question mark surrounding England's centre-back pairing, it is that they are prone to pace in behind. Thankfully, Italy do not have the resources to play this style of football.
In the end it might not matter what England do. Italy are masters of their own self-destruction, and their record at major tournaments is inconsistent at best. As with France, you never know quite what to expect from the Italians - humiliation at the hands of South Korea in 2002, winners against the odds in 2006, and a laughing stock in 2010, as they failed to get out of a group containing Slovakia and New Zealand.
If England are willing to treat this tournament as a stepping stone, then they should have the confidence to try something new. They have to take the game to Italy, get an early goal, and then push for an immediate second, as Liverpool have done so well this year. Do this, and the shackles might just come off for England.
Another great article. I predict a 0-0. Think both teams will be over cautious and think a loss is absolute worst case. Can see Roy starting Milner. I do think people are underestimating Italy, who were euro 2012 finalists and third in the confederations cup only behind Spain and Brazil. I believe they will go through and as long as Suarez is fully wound up I am being a glass half empty England supporter and predicting an early exit fot us, despite possessing a better team than four years ago, this really is the group of death, with Costa Rica being no mugs either.
ReplyDeleteBrilliant read Mark. Let's hope England play with the similar flair that has seen Liverpool do so well this season! We finally have a few different options rather than our typical 4-4-2.
ReplyDeleteAgree another excellent article, I think if England score first in the first half an hour, we will see an excellent game of football, possibly 2-1 either way in my opinion. If we play with pace, get the ball down and play then England should take the game to the Italians - for who this is a crucial tournament. Really think that England can top the group - Suarez not being fully fit and beating the Italians will secure 7 points for Roy's boys. Costa Rice to go out with 0 points and a goal difference of -8, scoring only 1 goal in the process. The Italians finishing above Uruguay on goals scored to secure a passage to the last 16.
ReplyDeleteReally well-written and thought out piece Marco. You're spot on with a number of elements, including Italy's strengths and obvious weaknesses at the back. Will be interesting to see if Roy picks Shaw ahead of Baines; as you suggested, or we'll he'll 'play it safe' so to speak. One of the main issues for me in the Italy match will be nullifying Pirlo. Who will be given this task? I'd suggest the Ox in the midfield engine-room, to shore up the back, but also provide a surge going forward
ReplyDeleteExcellent comments guys. Not quite sure the Ox is mature enough to handle Pirlo, has to be Henderson or Wilshire for me. I get the sense Wilshire is really fired up for this tournament and hope he can do the business. It is going to be incredibly tight as to who goes through, but i think roy will be more positive then most predict. That all said, I agree Italy are still very strong, and we will only win if we really target their specific weaknesses
ReplyDeleteGreat article Marco, personally I'm very happy and excited about the squad that Roy has chosen. I can't see past an England win if we play with the same pace, style, flair and fearlessness that these players have played with all season. The game will be completely different to the one in the Euros, they failed to beat us in normal time that's when they were at there best and England were a shadow of the team we are now.
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